DrTCJ’s Tweets — January 2016 – February 11 2016

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?
It reminds me of Mark Twain who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.
Twitter followers on DrTCJ now total 1,820 – please tell friends and colleagues.
This is one of the periodic Jones on Real Estate blog postings covering the latest Tweets.
While you may recognize some of the data from my blog postings, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.

DrTCJ’s Tweets 2016 Through February 11

• Total commercial real estate sales ($2.5 million & up) tallied $534 billion in 2015, up 24% from 2014 – Real Capital Analytics
• Total commercial real estate lending is forecast to hit an all-time record high in 2016 at $511 billion, up 3% year-over-year – MBA
• Houston Single family home sales dipped 2.1% in January 2016 from a year earlier, but median price rose 5.3% – http://HAR.com
• With just 3,600 vacant rental units in all of Ireland, Irish rents jumped 9.0% in 2015 to €979 after gaining 10.7% in 2014 – Daft.ie
• Number of open construction jobs hit 207,000 in December 2015(SAAR), up from 138,000 in November and now at the greatest since early 2007
• Consumer credit outstanding increased 7.2% (annualized) in December 2015, with a 6.9% increase for the entire year – Federal Reserve
• The average FICO score on approved loans in December 2015 was 722, down from a 2015 peak of 732 in February
• 32,000 foreclosures were completed in December 2015, down 22.6% from a year ago and off 5.6% sequentially from November 2015 – CoreLogic
• While global rents for office, industrial and retail properties are forecast to rise 2.2% in 2016, The Americas should rise 3.4% – CBRE
• Ft Myers-Cape Coral median SFR home price rocketed up 13.7% in 2015 (12-month moving average of monthly median home prices) to $213,300
• Loans going into foreclosure rose from 1.4% in the early 2004, peaked at 4.64% in 2011, now back to 1.88% as of Q3 2016 – MBA
• Forecast Venezuela inflation rate this year is 720%, greatest in the world after doubling currency in circulation in 2015 – IMF
• Top Curb Appeal Upgrades

Front Door Update
Lighting Up Exterior
Landscaping
Patio Furniture
Garage Door
RISMedia

• Homebuyers in 70% of US metros can break even on a home purchase in 2 years (rent-rates-price gains) – Zillow vis RISMedia
• China’s working-age population is growing by 1 million people every month – WSJ
• China, after adjusting for labor, productivity and energy costs, is now more expensive than Indonesia, India, Thailand and Mexico – BCG WSJ
• China’s labor cost along the coast, adjusted for productivity, is $14.60 per hour vs $22.68 in the U.S. – Boston Consulting Group via WSJ
• India today has 1.3 billion people, is forecast to overtake China as the most populous country by 2022, reaching 1.7 billion by 2050 – WSJ
• China, adjusting for labor costs, productivity and energy costs, is more costly than Thailand
• Even though January 2016 job growth was just 151,000 (after averaging 228,000 monthly in 2015), unemployment rate fell from 5.0% to 4.9%
• Current U.S. Population growth correlates with a need to create 120,000 jobs per month, with 151,000 created in January 2016 – WSJ
• Top Job Growth Categories in Jan 2016 Retail Trade +58,000 Health Care +37,000 Manufacturing +29,000 Financial Activities +18,000
• Just 151,000 net new jobs were created in January 2016, far short of the 180,000 consensus. December job increase revised down 30,000 – BLS
• Obama’s proposed $10 per barrel oil tax would increase gasoline prices 29.5 cents per gallon http://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2014/10/15/potential-60-per-barrel-oil-and-corresponding-gasoline-prices/ …
• 10 year Treasury rates hit a 12- month intra-day low yesterday at 1.79% as global investors continued the flight to quality
• 30 year interest rates drop to 3.72% interest as global flight to quality by investors seeking a safe harbor – Freddie Mac
• CoreLogic’s Home Price Index says US home prices increased 6.3% in the year ending December 2015 with a forecast 5.4% gain in 2016
• With spending trailing income in December 2015, December 2015 savings totaled $753.3 billion, the most since December 2012 – Commerce Dept
• Consumer spending, which typically represents 2/3rds of U.S. economic activity, rose 3.4% in 2015 compared to 4.2% in 2014 – Commerce Dept
• 44 states have a state corporate income tax. Iowa is the highest at 12.0 percent. Those without include NV OH SD TX WA WY – Tax Foundation
• Automating the U.S. insurance industry could consolidate or replace up to 25% of all full-time positions over the next decade – McKinsey
• U.S. Homeownership rate rose to 63.8% in Q4 2015 up from 63.4% in the prior quarter with the largest increase aged 35-44 – Census Bureau
• Commercial lending in Q4 2015 was the highest 4th Quarter ever recorded, likely making 2015 the 2nd most in history behind just 2007 – MBA
• Net absorption of office, retail and industrial space hit 649.2 million sq ft in 2015, up 15.5% YOY, the most since 2007 – CoStar
• Hottest Housing Markets Jan 2016 Based Searches & Listing Views San Francisco San Jose Dallas Vallejo San Diego http://Realtor.com
• 11% ($183.3 bln) of $1.7 trillion of outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages (nonbanks+Investors) matures in 2016, up 51% YOY – MBA
• Big-box cap rates compressed 63 basis points to 6.08 percent in 2015 for single-tenant net-lease properties – Boulder Group
• CBO estimates 13 million will obtain coverage in 2016 via public exchanges of which 11 million receive subsidies to pay all or part – BI
• Despite gains under ObamaCare, 30 million Americans lack health insurance of which 6 million are eligible for Medicare – WSJ
• Peak of the housing bubble, buying the median-priced home with a 30-yr loan took 33% of median household income vs 21% today – Black Knight
• It now takes 21% of median household income to purchase the median priced home using a 30-year fixed rate loan – Black Night Financial
• The top 25% of young college graduates earn at least $60,000 per year, with 8 of the top 10 earners having engineering degrees – WSJ
• The unemployment rate for young college graduates declined more than 7% to 4.9% in September when overall employment was 5.3% – WSJ
• Income for recent college graduates highest in a decade. Bachelor degree holders earned median $43,000 in 2015, up 7% YOY ($3,000+) – WSJ
• Despite depressed oil prices, Houston had more $1 million and up home sales in 2015 than ever in history

• Home starts are forecast to increase 18% in 2016 and 30% in 2017 per NAHB as reported by http://RealtyNewsReport.com
• While suburban home values increased 5.9% in value in 2015, urban home values jumped 7.5% as downtown development flourishes – Zillow
• Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 2015 Home Sales Up 10.28% vs 2014 at 84,249 homes Arizona Regional MLS
• Nashville, Tennessee Home Sales 2015 Up 10.96% versus 2014 at 30,405 homes Greater Nashville Association of Realtors
• Boise Idaho Home Sales (Canyon & Ada Counties) 2014 to 2015 – Up 17.2% Dynamic Market! Intermountain MLS
• Indiana Existing Home Sales – 2015 vs 2014 Sales rose 6.90% to 80,234 units in 2015 Indiana Association of Realtors
• 2015 vs 2014 Existing Home Sales +14.05% Cleveland +5.18% Cincinnati +5.91% Columbus Ohio Association of Realtors
• Highest Job Loss States in 2015 -18,800 North Dakota -17,600 Louisiana -11,800 West Virginia -8,900 Oklahoma -6,400 Wyoming BLS
• Top Job Growth States 2015 – New Jobs 459,400 California 233,100 Florida 166,900 Texas 159,900 New York 91,100 Georgia BLS
• Worst State Job Growth 2015 – Percentage Basis -4.00% North Dakota -2.17% Wyoming -1.55% West Virginia -0.88% Louisiana -0.53% Oklahoma BLS
• Top State Job Growth 2015 – Percentage Basis 4.42% Idaho 3.29% South Carolina 3.19% Utah 2.93% Florida 2.90% California BLS
• Purchase residential lending volume (average Fannie-Freddie-MBA) is forecast to increase 10.4% from 2015 to 2016 – more sales, higher prices
• Residential refinance lending volume (average of Fannie-Freddie-MBA) is forecast to drop 36.4% from 2015 to 2016
• Total residential lending (average of Fannie-Freddie-MBA) is forecast to decline from $1.64 trillion in 2015 to $1.45 trillion in 2016
• Total residential lending rocketed up 488% from 1995 to 2003. 2016, however, is forecast to be down almost 63% vs 2003 – Fannie Mae
• US GDP grew at a minuscule 0.7% annual rate (preliminary) in Q4 2015, but expectations for Q1 2016 are in the 2% plus range – Commerce Dept
• Leisure and hospitality is business booming in Houston, with a record 732,967 hotel room nights booked in 2015, up 29% YOY – Houston First
• Watch this morning at 9:30 Eastern – Stewart Information Services Corp NYSE-STC Rings the Opening Bell at the NYSE https://livestream.com/NYSE
• The December 2015 Pending Home Sale Index (newly signed contracts) was up 4.2% compared a year ago, 16 consecutive months of YOY gains – NAR
• 6.4 million homes with mortgage loans were underwater at the end of 2015, 11.5% of properties with a loan, down 616,000 YOY – RealtyTrac
• 11 of the 23 nonprofit healthcare cooperatives created by ACA have failed due to too many sick people and too few affordable plans – FT
• Total U.S. New home sales were estimated at 501,000 in 2015, up 14.5% from 2014 – HUD & US Census Bureau
• New home sales hit a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 544,000 in December 2015, up 9.9% YOY and up 10.8% from November 2015
• Vornado is spending $5,000 per square foot to develop a condo tower in midtown Manhattan at 220 Central Park South – Barclays
• A record £64.3 billion ($91.1 billion) flowed into UK commercial real estate in 2015 (50% foreign), up 4% from 2014 – Lambert Smith Hampton
• Cities with Largest Projected Rent Gains in 2016 San Jose San Francisco Seattle Denver Portland, OR Zillow via Bloomberg
• Cities with Largest Projected Rent Declines in 2016 Indianapolis Las Vegas Chicago Pittsburgh Baltimore Zillow via Bloomberg
• New household formation will continue to average 1.2 million per year for the next decade – Demand Institute via RISMedia
• 31% of Millennials aged 18 to 34 lived with their parents in 2015 vs 27% in the early 2000s – Demand Institute via RISMedia
• At least 100 million of the 320 million Americans had their health records hacked in 2015 – IBT
• First-time home buyers, who historically made up 40% of existing home sales, did 32% of the purchases in December 2015 – NAR
• 15% of all existing home sales in December 2015 were purchased by investors. They paid all-cash 64% of the time – NAR
• Foreclosures made up just 6% of all existing home sales in December 2015, selling at an average 16% discount vs non-distressed sales – NAR
• 3 in 10 (32%) of existing homes sold in December 2015 were on the market less than one month – NAR
• Houston Class A & B office sublease space available, historically 3.3 million square feet, is now 8 million sq ft – NAI Partners
• Most Satisfied Apartment Renters New York City Los Angeles Chicago Houston Philadelphia http://Apartmentsratings.com
• While 27% of Millennials have taken on a credit card 24% have college loans, and 14% car loans, just 3% have a mortgage loan – Avant
• Annual average U.S. residential rents are forecast to rise just 1.1% by December 2016 to $1,396 from $1,381 in December 2015 – Zillow
• With 10,000 Americans turning 65 each day, 401(k) withdrawals in 2013 exceeded new contributions for the 1st time – WSJ
• The average new home size in the U.S. increased from 2,660 in 2014 to 2,720 in 2015, an increase of 2.25% – NAHB
• States with lowest combined delinquency & foreclosure rates as a percent of homes with loans

• States with the greatest combined foreclosure and delinquency rates as of December 2015

• Number of homes 30 or more days past due in foreclosure as of Dec 2015 was 3.097 million – down 618,000 (down 16.6%) Y-O-Y – Black Knight
• Total U.S. foreclosure starts were down 14.64% in Dec 2015 vs 1 year ago to 78,100 – Black Knight Financial Services
• Total U.S. Delinquency rate (30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure) ended Dec 2015 at 4.78%, down 14.98% Y-O-Y – Black Knight
• Existing home sales jumped 7.7% year-over-year in December 2015 to 5.46 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) – NAR
• At $735 average monthly effective apartment rent, Little Rock Arkansas is rated #1 U.S. Market for renters including Income – Axiometrics
• Though China’s economic growth rate was 6.8% annualized in Q4 2015, that was the slowest rate posted in 25 years – Wall Street Journal
• The global oil market is likely to remain oversupplied until late 2016 due to slowed energy usage growth – International Energy Agency
• 65% of foreign investors in U.S. real estate plan to increase their investment in 2016 and another 30% plan to maintain – AFIRE Survey
• The California median home price rose 8.0% year-over-year in December 2015 to $477,060, also up 2.6% sequentially vs Nov 2015 – CAR
• California townhouse- condo sales, which were TRID delayed in November 2015, rose 25.1% in December 2015 vs prior month, up 10.2% YOY – CAR
• After California SFR home sales fell in November 2015 due to TRID, December 2015 jumped 10.7% vs a year ago, up 9.7% vs prior month – CAR
• 39.5 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, with 64% relying on it for more than 1/2 their income – Motley Fool via USA Today
• Student Debt: Totals $1.2 trillion , 70% of graduating Bachelor Degrees have college loans, Average recent grad had $35,051 @MarketWatch
• US Real Retail Sales grew just 2.1% in 2015 versus an annual average of 5.1% from 2010 – 2014 – Commerce Department
• With apartment rents up more than 20% since 2010 (REIS), sales hit an all-time record $138.7 billion in 2015, up 30% from 2014 – JLL
• Developers forecast to deliver almost 1 million new apartment units in the next 3 years in response to rising rents – Axiometrics
• Think there is no inflation? Increased shipping costs: UPS Ground +4.9% FedEx Ground +4.9% USPO Priority Mail +9.8% (Jan 16) USA Today
• New residential renters paid 4.8% more in 2015 vs 2014, with typical rent now $1,244 per month in 100 largest metros – MPF Research
• U.S. Office rents rose 4.9% in Q4 2015 vs a year ago, the largest gain in 7 years – Cushman and Wakefield
• Dallas-Ft Worth shopping center vacancy rates are now at the lowest level seen in 31 years at 8% – Weitzman Group
• Median single family Houston home price rose 6.5% in 2015 to all-time record $212,000 – Houston Association of Realtors (HAR)
• Houston average single family price rose to a record $280,290 in 2015, up 3.7% from 2014 – Houston Association of Realtors
• Houston 2015 single family home sales dropped 2.4% vs 2014, but still all-time 2nd best – Houston Association of Realtors ( HAR)
• NAR forecasts 2016 existing home sales up 1.5% vs 2015 & median price up 5.8% — new home sales up 15.1% with 2.6% increase in median price
• Just 1.2% of all homes with mortgage loans were in the foreclosure inventory in November 2015 – CoreLogic
• 33,000 residential foreclosures were completed in November, down 21.8% from a year ago – CoreLogic
• The UK will apply a 3% stamp duty on buy-to-let and second home purchases in April 2016 – PropertyWire
• An estimated $7.6 trillion is in hidden tax havens (8% of total world wealth) costing governments $200 annually in lost taxes – G. Zucman
• At least 865 new hotels under construction with 103,230 rooms will open in 2016, still 1.9% less than the long-term annual average – STR
• Almost 2.4 million homeowners could save $200 or more per month refinancing at today’s rates – Black Knight
• 5.2 million residential borrowers can qualify & benefit from refinancing, but rising rates could cut that in 1/2 by year end – Black Knight
• In 2013 (latest data available) 30% of all State government revenues were derived from Federal grants in aid – Tax Foundation
• States With the Highest Probability of Home Price Declines in the Next 2 Years
  North Dakota 46%
  Wyoming 37%
  Alaska 33%
  Arch Mortgage Insurance
• US apartment rents rose 4.6% in 2015 to an almost average $1,180, up from $1,125 a year earlier – REIS
• Retail sales rose 3.3% from October 31 to January 4th versus a year ago per First Data Corp, credit card processor
• US December 2015 job growth rocketed to 292,000 vs economist consensus of 200,000, back stopping the Fed decision to raise rates
• Average incentive spending by manufacturers of new cars in 2015 was $3,063, with a median price of $34,428 – Kelly Blue Book – TrueCar – WSJ
• December 2015 car sales – Year-Over-Year Change

VW -9.1%
Nissan +18.7%
FCA Fiat +12.6%
Toyota +10.8%
Honda +9.9%
Ford +8.3%
GM +5.7%
WSJ

• Forecast 2016 Advanced Nations GDP Growth by IMF
  US 2.8%
  Spain 2.5%
  Britain 2.2%
  France 1.9%
  Canada 1.7%
  Germany 1.6%
  Italy 1.3%
  Japan 1%
• Boeing delivered a record 762 jetliners in 2015 as airlines reap gains from cheap fuel costs and global trade expands – MarketWatch
• More than one-half of Americans (52%) would consider moving to another state for better weather or climate – Harris Poll of 2,232 Adults
• 63% of Americans could not handle a surprise $500 to $1,000 expense according to a survey of 1,000 adults by http://Bankrate.com
• The U.S. Dollar hits its highest value yesterday in more than 13 years when compared to a basket of 16 foreign currencies – WSJ
• Oregon had the greatest percent of inbound moves at 64% while Hawaii had great percentage of out bound moves (62%) in 2015 – Atlas Van Lines
• Idaho was the top percentage job gainer among states in the 12 months ending November 2015 at 4.19% with North Dakota the worst at -2.87%
• U.S. home prices increased 6.3% in the 12 months ending November 2015 & are forecast to rise another 5.4% by November 2016 – CoreLogic
• U.S. Auto sales hit an all-time record of 17.47 million in 2015, besting the previous 2000 high by 68,138 vehicles – AutoData
• Houston was named as the highest risk market in the country for declining home prices with a 36% probability – Arch Mortgage Insurance Co
• U.S. car & light truck sales likely hit all-time record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015 with 18 million possible in 2016 – Wardsauto & WSJ
• 66% of November 2015 California housing sales had multiple offers vs 64% a year ago – California Association of Realtors (CAR)
• Biggest Concerns of California Realtors Nov 2015 Shortage of homes for sale 28% Declining affordability 22% Overinflated prices 12% CAR
• California November 2015 pending home sales were down 11.4% sequentially from October 2015, but up 13.6% year-over-year – CAR
• Median home prices rose 5.5% in 12 months ending Oct 2015 to $254,000, now just 5.3% off the June 2006 peak of $268,000 – Black Knight
• The $535 billion in total residential rent payments in 2015 were almost as much as the Department of Defense budget, $575 billion – Zillow
• An added 1.8 new renter households were create in 2015, making up part of the increased $19 billion in rent payments in 2015 – Zillow
• US residential tenants doled out a total $535 billion in rent in 2015, up from $516 billion in 2014 (+3.6%) – Zillow
• US home equity up $1.1 trillion in 2015, now totaling $28.5 trillion, but still lower than the Oct 2006 peak of $29.2 trillion – Zillow
• 1,352 Houston SFRs sold for $1 million and up in the 1st 11 months of 2015 vs 1,298 in the same period a year ago – HAR
• Cheap gasoline saved consumers a total $115 billion in 2015, or $550 per driver – AAA
• The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits the week ending Dec 26th increased 20,000 to 287,000, the most in 6 months – BLS
• 1st time homebuyers are now paying a median $140,238 (2.6 times their income) up from 1.7 times in the early 1970s – Zillow
• The typical 1st time homebuyer now rents for 6 years prior to buying a home, up from 2.6 years in the early 1970s – Zillow
• Top Concerns of Realtors in 2016 New mortgage disclosure rules – TRID Condo financing Tight Inventories Tight Credit Appraisals NAR
• The 30-year residential fixed-rate mortgage rate averaged 4.01%, the first time above 4% since the week of July 23, 2015 – Freddie Mac
• November 2015 pending home sales (newly signed contracts) were up 2.7% vs a year ago, but declined 0.9% from October – NAR
• Total Federal debt is now $18.82 trillion and increased in 2015 by more than $5,000 per household to almost $160,000 – Washington Examiner
• Almost 40% of 401 metros are now at all-time peak median home prices, up from 30% a year ago, with a forecast to hit 50% in 2016 – CoreLogic
• Buying is more affordable than renting in 58% of US markets in 2016 — RealtyTrac http://www.realtytrac.com/news/home-prices-and-sales/realtytrac-2016-rental-affordability-report/ …
• Retail sales, (with strong online-women’s apparel-furniture), grew by 7.9% this holiday season after gaining 5.5% a year ago – MasterCard
• Low oil prices will see Saudi Arabia run a $98 billion deficit this year but still has an estimated $640 billion in reserves – AP
• Manhattan coop-condo-apartment sales set an all-time record median price in 2015 at $980,000, up 2.1% year-over-year, sales up 2.1% – WSJ
• States With Fewest Foreclosures & Delinquencies Nov 2015 2.21% North Dakota 2.93% Alaska 3.03% Colorado 3.23% Minnesota Black Knight
• Top States in Foreclosures & Delinquencies Nov 2015 12.57% Mississippi 10.46% New Jersey 10.3% Louisiana 9.03% New York Black Knight
• 827,000 residences were 90 days or more past due in Nov 2015 on the loan but were not in foreclosure, down by 293,000 YOY – Black Knight
• The inventory of loans in foreclosure as of November 2015 was off 21% from a year ago, 185,000 fewer than 1 year ago – Black Knight
• Foreclosure starts fell 9.76% in November 2015 compared to a year earlier, and was down 9.02% sequentially from October – Black Knight
• The number of new foreclosure starts in November 2015 at 66,000 was the fewest recorded since April 2006 (9+years) – Black Knight
• Average Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac-MBA 2016 Refinance Lending Volume Forecasts as of December 2015

• Millennial’s Selection of Expertise in BofA – USA Today Survey 34% Social media 23% Health & Wellness 17% Personal finance 5% Investing
• Freddie Mac 2016 Forecasts Home prices up 4.4% Housing sales up 3% Housing starts up 16% 30-year rates average less than 4.5% HousingWire
• Cyberattacks were directed at least once at almost 6 in 10 (58%) of all business computers in 2015 – Kaspersky Lab
• Policy makers forecast a Fed Funds Rate of 1.375% at end of 2016, up from the current 0.25% to 0.50% target range – BloombergBusiness
• All-time record 100.5 million travelers expected to travel more than 50 miles from home this holiday season from Dec 23 – Jan 3 – AAA
• 37% of all existing homes sold in November 2015 were on the market less than 30 days – NAR
• U.S. Median existing home sale price at $220,300 in November 2015 was up 6.3% year-over-year – NAR
• Although November 2015 existing home sales were down 3.8% year-over-year, raw unadjusted monthly sales were identical at 351,000 – NAR & TJ
• 43% of respondents to the America at Home Survey said they planned to buy a home when they got married or moved in with life partner
• Median age at first marriage for females has risen from 25.1 years in 2000 to 27.0 years old in 2014 delaying home buying – US Census Bureau
• Median age at first marriage for males has risen from 26.8 years in 2000 to 29.3 years old in 2014, delaying homebuyers – US Census Bureau
• Student loan debt as an obstacle to homeownership responses increased from 49% Somewhat or Very Much in 2014 to 57% in 2015 – Widmeyer Comm
• The housing sector made up 15.32% of total Q3 2015 GDP, with homebuilding and remodeling making up 3.26% – NAHB
• The last major new Federal or State dam in California was completed in 1979, but State population rose 16 million since then – WSJ

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Ted