Once again I get to write about one of my favorite reports — the often requested summary of Dr. Glenn Mueller’s quarterly report on commercial real estate cycles. The Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles from Dividend Capital is a quarterly report on commercial real estate conditions for five commercial property types and is an excellent resource for checking the pulse rate and blood pressure across more than 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
Dr. Mueller is a professor for the Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at Denver University. He is also the real estate investment strategist at Dividend Capital Group, where he provides real estate market-cycle research and investment strategy for Dividend Capital’s Real Estate Securities. In my opinion, Dr. Mueller is the premier recognized expert in the study of commercial real estate cycles in the U.S.
Dr. Mueller defines four distinct phases in the commercial real estate cycle. These cycles provide intervals for investment and exit strategies for real estate investors.
- Recovery (declining vacancy, no new construction)
- Expansion (declining vacancy, new construction)
- Hypersupply (increasing vacancy, new construction)
- Recession (increasing vacancy, more completions)
The following table summarizes the latest findings for each of the property types. Occupancy rates increased in all property types in Q4 2015 except apartments, which declined 0.3 percent. New construction is finally catching up with demand. Hotels saw a 1.4 percent decline in revenues in Q4 2015 also. Once again, industrial properties garnered the top spot in annual rental growth at 5.5 percent, followed by offices at 4.4 percent, apartments at 4.0 percent, hotels at 2.6 percent and retail at 2.4 percent.
To download the latest full report click http://info.dividendcapital.com/rs/751-HQV-963/images/Cycle_Monitor_15Q4_FINAL.pdf?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRonva3JdO%2FhmjTEU5z16u4kUaO%2BlMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4ASsJiNa%2BTFAwTG5toziV8R7fALc1oy8MQUhfh Be certain to exam each of the property types in the report focusing on cities that have excess supply.
To obtain reports from prior quarters email: dividend.capital@dividendcapital.com
Dividend Capital has several Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) and specializes in real estate investments. To learn more about Dividend Capital click http://www.dividendcapital.com
Finally, to find out more about Dr. Glenn Mueller click http://daniels.du.edu/faculty-staff/glenn-mueller/
Ted