DrTCJ’s Tweets June 9, 2017 – July 6, 2017

If you track my Tweets, ignore this blog.

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?

More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®.  Join in or check out, so-to-speak, with this massive economic demographic.  One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!

Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.

Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 3,965 – please tell friends and colleagues and encourage them to follow.

While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.

DrTCJ’s Tweets June 9, 2017 Through July 6, 2017

• US Population Growth 2015-2016 0.7% to 324.1 Million
• Hispanics accounted for 50.7% of increase, Asians 23.4%, Blacks 15.8% – Trulia via MBA
• Top Vacation Home Markets 2017

@Attomdata

• Renting vs Buying Tipping Points NYC

7.7 Years Manhattan
4.9 Years Brooklyn
2.7 Years Queens
1.4 Years Bronx

StreetEasy via MBA

• The tipping point for renting versus buying a home in New York City is 5.6 years, 1 year longer than 12 months ago – StreetEasy via MBA
• HOA foreclosures in the 2 major Nevada counties resulted in more than $1 billion in lost property sales – Lied Institute for Real Estate
• The US office market saw 7.5 million square feet of new deliveries to the market in Q2 2017, down from 10.2 sq ft in Q1 2017 – REIS via WSJ
• Q2 2017 office leasing activity in 79 US metros totaled 3.33 million sq ft vs 5.2 million sq ft in Q1 2017 – REIS via WSJ
• Occupied office space in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston & Dallas rose just 789,000 sq ft in Q2 2017 vs 3.63 million in Q1 – REIS
• US Over Retailed — The US has 40% more shopping space per capita vs Canada and 5 times more than the U.K. – Counselors of Real Estate via MBA
• State Debt Per Capita $Thousands

$11 Massachusetts
$9.2 Connecticut
$8.9 Rhode Island
$8.2 Alaska
$7.4 New Jersey

http://howmuch.net 

• State Debt Per Capita $Thousands

$0.9 Tennessee
$1.0 Nebraska
$1.2 Nevada
$1.3 Georgia
$1.5 Arkansas
$1.6 Texas

http://howmuch.net 

• Top Metro Home Price Gains 12-months Ending May 2017

9.2% Denver
7.3% Las Vegas
7.3% San Diego
6.4% Los Angeles
6.3% Boston

CoreLogic

• Top Home Price Appreciation Forecast 12-Months Ending May 2017

9.7% CA
9.7% NV
7.4% CT
7.1% OR
6.8% FL

CoreLogic

• Single-family rent inflation was 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in the 12-months ending May 2017 – CoreLogic
• US home prices rose 6.6% in the 12-months ending May 2017 vs a year ago & are forecast to rise 5.3% in the coming 12-months – CoreLogic
• $39 billion of 3-month US Treasury bills sold at auction Monday yielding 1.05%, up from 1% a week. ago, the highest yield seen since 2008
• May 2017 Pending Home Sales Index (newly signed contracts) fell 1.7% from a year ago and was off 0.7% sequentially from April – NAR
• Americans Spending on Meat in the 2 Weeks Before July 4th – $ Millions

$800 Beef
$371 Chicken
$218 Pork
$85 Shrimp
$48 Salmon

Nielsen

• Poorest Performing Global Housing Markets 12-Months Ending Q1 2017 – Inflation Adjusted (Real)

Global Property Guide

• Hottest Global Housing Markets 12-Months Ending Q1 2017 – Nominal — Not Inflation Adjusted

Global Property Guide

• Hottest Global Housing Markets 12-Months Ending Q1 2017 – Inflation Adjusted

Global Property Guide

• Average amount financed on a new car or truck in June 2017 was $30,945, at an average 69.3 months repayment term
• US new car sales down 2% in the 1st half of 2017, down 1% in retail sales, but off 7.8% to fleets, govts & rental car cos – JD Power
• China’s Restricted Homebuying and Lending saw value increases decline from 28.7% in 2016 to just 3.6% in first 5 months of 2017 – Fitch
• Survey Results. — Could You Be Easily Replaced?

Responding YES:

70% Support Functions
64% Logistics & Operations
63% HR

Emolument

Residential Rates Week Ending June 29, 2017

3.88% 30-year fixed
3.17% 15-year fixed
3.17% 5-year fixed US Treasury Index ARM

Freddie Mac

• US manufacturing sector is experiencing the best growth in almost 3 years as ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 57.8% in June 2017 vs May 54.9%
• US median home price reached $253,000 in Q2 2017, up 7.7% year-over-year, least affordable in almost 9 years – ATTOM Data Solutions
• Bitcoin exceeds $40 billion in total currency value, but per-transaction costs have risen from 5 cents, peaked at $5, now at $3.50 – WSJ
• A record 44.2 million Americans are expected to travel more than 50 miles from home this 4th of July, 1.25 million more than last year – AAA
• Q1 2017 GDP estimate revised up from original 0.7% estimate, the to 1.2% and now to a final 1.4% – MarketWatch
• FICO Score Changes October 2016 to April 2017

Refinance down 27 points to 725

Purchasers down 4 points to 725

Urban Institute

• Single family rental home values rose 8.5% year-over-year in Q1 2017 to a median $195,000 with a 6.2% cap rate – HomeUnion
• Most to Build New Housing Metros

1 Honolulu
2 Boston
3 Baltimore
4 Miami
5 Memphis
6 Philadelphia
7 Seattle

NMHC/NAA Via Bloomberg

• Property owners paid $541 billion in total property taxes in the four quarters ending December 2016, up 4.5% year-over-year – NAHB
• US businesses paid $1.3 trillion in gross interest in 2015, now Congress proposing to make no longer deductible tax wise – WSJ
• Since November 1997, the number of publicly-traded companies has shrunk by more than 50% dropping from 7,355 firms to less than 3,600 – WSJ
• MBA Housing Sales Forecast – June 2017

• Residential Lending Forecasts: Purchase + Refi – June 2017

• Residential Purchase Lending Forecasts – June 2017

• Residential Refi Lending Forecasts — June 2017

• 30-Year Residential Interest Rate Forecasts – June 2017

• Florida Homes Sales May 2017 vs May 2016

+7.6% SFR
+8.0% THC

Median Price May 2017 vs May 2016

+7.7% SFR
+8.1% THC

Florida Realtors

• Residential Rates Week Ending June 22, 2017

3.90% 30-year fixed
3.17% 15-year fixed
3.14% 5-year fixed US Treasury Index ARM

Freddie Mac

• Investors bought 16% of all existing homes sales in May 2017 vs 13% a year ago paying all-cash 64% of the time – NAR
• 1st time homebuyers acquired one-out-of-every 3 sales in May 2017 (33%), up from 30% a year ago – NAR
• Short sales made up just 1% of all closings in May 2017, selling at an average 16% discount vs non- distressed properties – NAR
• Foreclosure sales made up 4% of all closings in May 2017, selling at an average 20% discount vs non- distressed properties – NAR
• 55% of all existing home sales were on the market less than 1 month, most ever – NAR
• There were just 1.96 million active home listings for sale at the end of May 2017, down 8.4% vs a year ago: 4.2 months of supply – NAR
• YTD existing homes sales thru May 2017 up 2.9% vs a year ago totaling 2.091 million transactions – NAR
• May 2017 existing home sales up 2.7% YOY with price +5.8% to $252,800. Median price has increased YOY 63 consecutive months – NAR
• 3% of all families earning less than $15,000 per year spend more than 50% of their income on housing – Harvard Joint Center for Housing
• Least Affordable Cities in the World – Rent to Income Ratio

60% Mexico City
59% Manhattan
57% Lagos
47% Los Angeles
46% Paris

RentCafe

• 55% of those shopping for a home mortgage in Q1 2017 were not yet homeowners vs 45% in Q1 2016 & 40% in Q1 2015 – TransUnion via HousingWire
• Recent survey of 1,334 homebuyers in 11 US markets found 33% had made an offer to purchase a home sight unseen, up from 20% – Redfin via WSJ
• Highest Percentage of Non-Current Loans

6.60% Maine
6.83% West Virginia
7.13% Alabama
8.68% Louisiana
10.15% Mississippi

Black Knight

• Lowest Percentage of Non-Current Loans

2.12% Colorado
2.26% North Dakota
2.51% Minnesota
2.69% Idaho
2.70% Oregon

Black Knight Financial

• 74% of Americans go into debt to finance their vacations, at an average $1,100 per trip – USA Today
• California May 2017 housing sales were up 2.6% vs a year ago, with median price now $550,200, up 5.8% year-over-year – CAR
• Why Oil Prices are Going DOWN – Mid-June 2017 global oil production global rose 1.25 million barrels per day vs a year ago – EIA
• May 2017 existing home sales were on the market a median 27 days, the fewest days since NAR commenced data collection on this metric – NAR
• Lightning strike insurance claims totaled 109,000 in 2016 with an average value per claim of $7,572 – State Farm & III via RBC
• 2% of the new single-family construction (totaling 79,000 homes) in 2016 were built on sites where a prior home was torn down – NAHB
• Top US Grocery Store Sales 2016 $ Billions

$200.6 Walmart
$115.3 Kroger’s
$59.7 Safeway-Albertsons
$34.2 Publix
$25.8 Ahold

CBRE-emarketer

• The inventory of homes for sale has now shrunk 103 consecutive months on a year-over-year basis, now at a record low 2.6 months – RE/ MAX
• US home sales were up 4.3% in May 2017 vs a year ago and sequentially up 20.6% from April to the highest May level in 9 years – RE/MAX
• 45% of renters in the 100 largest metros could afford the monthly mortgage payment on median priced homes – Harvard Joint Center for Housing
• Want to know property transaction costs in countries around the world, who pays along with the buying process?
  http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/faq/guide-transaction-costs …
• Want to know home price changes around the world? http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/house-prices-indices/House-price-changes-year-to-end-Q1-2017 …
• Early-stage mortgage delinquencies (30-59 days past due) fell to 1.7% in March 2017, the lowest seen since January 2000 – CoreLogic
• 244,000 new apartments will be needed each year from now until 2030, but only 244,000 were added from 2012-2016 – NAA & NMHC via RISMedia
• Structural Change: Netflix now has 50.85 million subscribers while all US cable has 48.61 million – iHeart Radio
• Just 3% of the US owner-occupied housing stock was built after 2010 – NAHB
• The average age of the US housing stock is 37 years old, up from 31 years old a decade ago. NAHB
• 34% of adult Americans have zero savings & 35% have less than $1,000
• Currently just 0.6% of the global demand for energy is delivered by solar & wind despite massive subsidies – WSJ
• 1 out of 5 Millennials (21%) changed jobs in the past 12-months & just 50% expect to be working at the same firm 1 year from now – RISMedia
• The typical Millennial with student loan debt in their 20s has an average $22,135 student loan balance – Federal Reserve
• Under 30-year olds (17 million) owe $376.3 billion in college loans, a median monthly payment of $203, average $352 – Federal Reserve
• The Fed raised rates one quarter of a percent (25 basis points) today and will start Treasury portfolio – MarketWatch
• Tax To GDP Levels

35.6% Brazil
34.2% OECD Average
32.9% UK
28.8% South Africa
25.4% US
23.0% Russia
19.4% China

India Economic Survey

• Millennial Women’s Priorities (400 Surveyed)

1 Family
2 Self
3 Career
4 Friends

Create & Cultivate & Buzz MG via ADWEEK

• Millennial Women’s Survey

82% Active on Social Media
51% LinkedIn Most Beneficial Career Platform

Create & Cultivate & Buzz MG via ADWEEK

• Millennial Women’s Monthly Savings

45% $0 – $200
30% $200 – $500
14% $500 – $1,000
11% $1,000+

Create & Cultivate & Buzz MG via ADWEEK

• US home equity totaled $13.714 trillion in Q1 2017, up $1.346 trillion vs a year ago (+10.9%), equity at 58.3% – Federal Reserve via NAHB
• US home mortgage debt totaled $9.813 trillion in Q1 2017, up $252 billion vs a year ago (+2.6%) – Federal Reserve via NAHB
• US household holdings of real estate totaled $23.526 trillion Q1 2017, up $1.597 trillion (+7.2%) vs a year ago – Federal Reserve via NAHB
• Apartment sales rose 6% YOY in April 2017, more than 25% of that volume was a $2.85 billion transaction without which sales fell 21% – RCA
• Retirees NOT AT ALL SATISFIED with Retirement

7.9% 1998
6.2% 2002
9.6% 2005
10.1% 2010
10.5% 2012

Employee Benefit Research Institute

• Retirees VERY SATISFIED with Retirement

60.5% 1998
60.8% 2002
53.1% 2005
50.6% 2010
48.6% 2012

Employee Benefit Research Institute (ERBI)

• Mortgage Interest Deduction is used by less than 30% of taxpayers, mitigating some the impact of a proposed doubling of individual deduction
• 92% of the 31,000 new market-rate apartments opened in Seattle this decade are luxury units renting just below $2,000 per month – RealPage
• Sub $50 Oil Price Impact on Houston Offices: a $249.5 million office sale in 2013 contracted to now sell for $195 million – @RNRBulletin
• Working remotely in suburban-shared workspace could see the value of Central London office space drop up to 25% in 10 years – FitchRatings
• Fannie Mae is raising its debt-to-income ceiling from 45% to 50% July 29, 2017, but Qualified Mortgages still cap at 43% – HousingWire
• Why a Listing is Not Selling #3

9. Too Cluttered
10. Needed Repairs
11. Wrong Real Estate Agent

RISMedia

• Why a Listing is Not Selling #2

5. Home Not Professionally Cleaned
6. Not Staged
7. Personal Decor
8. Too Personalized

RISMedia

• Why a Listing is Not Selling #1

Overpriced
Poorly Written Listing
Seller Present at all Showings
Seller Too Attached

RISMedia

• Causes of Low Homeownership Rate

Post- Foreclosure Stress Disorder
Mortgage Availability
Student Loan Debt
SFR Affordability
No Supply

NAR

• College loan repayment perk? Memphis is contributing $50 per month to any city employee there 1 year or more, tax free – MarketWatch
• The number of US retailers with troubled financials facing potential bankruptcy totals 22 vs 19 Actual in the Great Recession – Moody’s

Get your own Twitter account and Tweet away — and of course retweeting the ones of mine you find interesting.

Want to see all of my tweets or follow? Click https://twitter.com/drtcj

If this 63-year old can Tweet, so can you.

Ted